Saturday, January 31, 2009

PEAK OIL? GLOBAL WARMING? NO, IT's 'BOOMSDAY!'
Five reasons 'population explosion' is world's biggest economic problem
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Six years ago, Peter Orszag, President Obama's new budget director, co-authored a Brookings Institution study that concluded: "Balancing the budget would require a 41% cut in spending on Social Security and Medicare, a 47% cut in discretionary spending, or a 17% cut in all non-interest spending." It's getting worse: Today entitlements eat up 40% of the federal budget and are growing.

No doubt Orszag's earlier thinking had a lot to do with why Obama picked him. But it's also a signal of what we can expect when a Social Security reform bill is sent to Congress during Obama's "first 100 days." And that will trigger a brutal battle. Why? Because AARP's 35 million members will fight all benefits reductions while young voters who put Obama in office will fight any new Social Security taxes.

Bruising battle? It won't matter. In the long term, reforming entitlements will be like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Remember, Obama's adding a $1 trillion stimulus package on top of what Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz calls a "$10 trillion hangover" of debt left by former President Bush and the economic meltdown. And all that's on top of the massive $60 trillion to $75 trillion of unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities.

To get perspective, let's shift our thinking into a parallel universe: Into Chris Buckley's satirical novel "Boomsday," which goes way beyond acceptable government policies. He offers a bizarre solution to reforming Social Security, a solution that forces all of us to focus, and not just on the out-of-control economics of retirement entitlements. He forces us to focus on the one core problem overshadowing all other global economic issues: Population growth.

Too Many Boomers and Babies in This Equation
Yes, population is the core problem that, unless confronted and dealt with, will render all solutions to all other problems irrelevant. Population is the one variable in an economic equation that impacts, aggravates, irritates and accelerates all other problems. Imagine you're on a call with the Oval Office:

"Listen to me," the frustrated U.S. president says on the phone in "Boomsday:" "I got a collapsing economy. I'm fighting four wars -- and looks like another is on the way." Agitated. "I got melting ice caps on both poles. Florida just lost another two feet of waterfront. Hundred square miles of Mississippi just went under." Faster. "I got a drought in the West the Interior Department says is going to make Colorado and Wyoming into another dust bowl." Breathless. "Pakistan and India are going at each other like a couple of wet cats. The CIA's telling me Israel's preparing to launch nuclear weapons." He's shaking. "I don't have time to take on a one-legged senator who says the solution to Social Security is for us to kill ourselves at age 70. The way I'm feeling now, I may shoot myself. And I may not wait until I'm 70."

Yes, you heard right. He's reacting to a proposal made by Cassandra Devine, a character in "Boomsday." She's a young, hot PR hustler running a "must read" blog. She resents the fact that her generation is getting stuck with the tax bill to pay Social Security benefits for retiring boomers. At first, her proposal was just a wake-up call, a shocker to get attention, to get Washington to deal with a hot-button issue politicians refuse to face. Her plan: Reduce population by encouraging suicides for aging boomers.

Bogus Math and Economic Equations
OK, so suicide's a bizarre, unacceptable solution. But "Boomsday" does put the problem in sharp focus: No, it's not "peak oil." Not global warming. It's the population explosion: Too many people, old and young, boomers and babies too. More and more people filling up our little planet.

And while she proposes eliminating boomers, throughout history other writers, warriors and governments have dealt with the other end, limiting births -- from family planning, infanticide, even genocide. Yet few expect change at either end of this spectrum. Indeed, a United Nation's study estimates the world population will continue exploding, from 6.6 billion to 9.3 billion by 2050!

And not only will there be about 50% more people on the planet before today's kids reach the age of the youngest boomers today, but every year they'll also be demanding more opportunities, more benefits and more resources for their personal economic growth as well as for the expansion of their national economies. Warning: by 2050 America's 400 million will be vastly outnumbered by 8.9 billion others across the planet, all competing with America.

In short, within four decades human demands will easily double. That makes population growth the key variable in every economic equation ... impacting every other major issue facing world economies ... from peak oil to global warming ... from foreign policy to nuclear threats ... from religion to science ... everything. Population is the No. 1 variable in the economic equation.

And here's how an exploding population will remain the key variable driving all other major economic issues in the next four short decades:

1. Global wars ... over food, water and energy
Five years ago Fortune reported on "The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare." Yes, from inside our military comes a warning of "the mother of all national security issues." As "the planet's carrying capacity shrinks, an ancient pattern reemerges: the eruption of desperate all-out wars over food, water, and energy supplies." But ask yourself: What if nations prioritized population control policies to minimize growth and reduce demand?

2. 'Global warming' ... and nuclear threats
Will it work? In the latest Foreign Policy magazine, environmental economist Bill McKibben, author of "The End of Nature," warns: "It might already be too late ... to save the planet from a climate catastrophe." The International Energy Agency's answer is more supply to feed exploding demand: The world must spend "$45 trillion to build 1,400 nuclear power plants and vastly expand wind power" in order to "halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050." Their supply-side obsession assumes three billion more people. But what if we focused on cutting demand by stabilizing world population at 6 billion?

3. 'Peak oil' ... versus 'peak population'
Experts warn that "The Age of Oil" is over. Soon the marginal cost of extracting a barrel will equal the sale price. We are on the downside of the bell curve. Special interests like Exxon-Mobil and the Saudis disagree.

But check sites like LifeAftertheOilCrash.com: "Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely respected geologists, physicists, bankers and investors in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global 'peak oil.'" Warning: We're near the tipping point: Stabilize population or self-destruct.

4. Alternative energies, 'political will' and lobbyists
Wall Street, Washington and Corporate America hustle the myth that we must become "energy independent." History suggests narrow special-interest lobbyists will dull the "political will to act" till we pass the point of no return. Our population will grow from 300 million to 400 million by 2050, but the rest of the world will add another 3 billion, with all demanding more economic resources to meet burgeoning demands for energy, food and water. If the world's population isn't addressed, we'll be outnumbered and outgunned.

5. The mythological math of 'economic growth'
Economic equations stumble on bogus data. Last spring political historian Kevin Phillips wrote a brilliant Harper's article "Numbers Racket" warning us that "the economy is worse than we know." Politicians use "deceptive statistics" to sell "Americans that the U.S. economy is stronger, fairer, more productive, more dominant, and richer with opportunity than it really is. The corruption has tainted the very measures that most shape public perception of the economy."

Making matters worse, economists are part of this conspiracy, tacitly endorsing government propaganda about progress.

Evolutionary geologist Jared Diamond put all this in perspective in his Pulitzer Prize-winning "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed:" "One of the disturbing facts of history is that so many civilizations collapse. Few people, however, least of all our politicians, realize that a primary cause of the collapse of those societies has been the destruction of the natural resources on which they depend. Fewer still appreciate that many of those civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society's demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power."

What's the one common reason societies, cultures, nations have collapsed across the world and throughout history? Leaders "focused only on issues likely to blow up in the next 90 days," lacking the will "to make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions." Their short-term thinking, unfortunately, sets the stage for a rapid "sharp curve of decline."
Free Market Fundamentalism:
Friedman, Pinochet and the "Chilean Miracle"
A personal essay in hypertext by Scott Bidstrup
www.bidstrup.com/economics.htm

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power."
--Benito Mussolini (1883-1945), Fascist Dictator of Italy

Introduction
Much has been written in the popular press and elsewhere about what has become known as "The Chilean Miracle." It is widely assumed by those who read about this "miracle" that what they're reading is based on fact.

The reality is that much of what they are reading, is, in fact, true. Unfortunately, however, it is also largely a half-truth, that does not reflect the actual experience of ordinary Chileans on the ground.

I uncovered this reality a number of years ago when investigating what has happened in Chile since the coup against Salvadore Allende and the rise of Augusto Pinochet. I was interested simply because I had heard so much radically conflicting testimony, truly passionate testimony, on both sides. Such passion, amidst such contradiction, stirred my curiosity. I felt like I had to know what really happened in order to form a valid opinion, and to know what it really meant.

What I discovered is that the reality of Chile today is two-fold. The experience of what happened in Chile is strongly influenced by who you are: the realites of the poor and working class are vastly different than those of the upper classes and the upper middle class. Who benefitted and why from the Pinochet years has strongly influenced what has been written about that epochal time in Chilean, and Latin American, history.

Why this is relevant today is that the Pinochet regime in Chile was a testing ground for much of the economic doctrine that is put in place today around the world, often by force, at the behest of the World Bank, the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the Inter-American Development Bank, and soon, the Free-Trade Agreement of the Americas. These organizations have, for years, been implementing policies around the world that were first tried in Chile. And the results of these policies have long been apparent. Of greater importance to Americans, is that these policies are now being implemented in the United States. We will soon experience what Chile has now experienced for a generation. It is important for us to know what the results have been, because we are embarking on the same road ourselves.

The organizations listed above are portrayed as trying to solve the problems of poverty and disposession that are the fate of most of the populations of Latin American countries. The policies they are implementing are portrayed as being proven, reliable, fundamental principles of economics that will bring about the benefits of prosperity to everyone. As we shall see, however, the results of these policies can often be quite different from the picture that is often painted. Which begs the question of why the deception. I'll answer that question here as well.

The Background
Throughout the 1950's and 1960's, Chile was touted as the "exception to the Latin American rule." Governed by a succession of democratic and largely transparent governments, Chile had its poverty, but it was nowhere near as severe or as grindingly oppressive as it was in most of the rest of Latin America. Many Americans retired to Chile, attracted by a cheap currency, low real estate prices, a friendly population, a centerist government and a general lack of the social unrest caused by the extreme disparity of wealth and poverty that existed throughout much of the rest of the continent.

But all was not well. As relatively well-off as the Chilean poor were by Latin American standards, they were still very aware of their relative disadvantage. The American ideal of egalitarianism had taken root in Chile, and the poor felt that they were entitled to a more fair deal within the political process, and a more equitable access to the economic life of the country. A succession of center-right governments had ignored the problems and they had begun to fester. By the 1970's, the intellectual ferment in the United States had reached Chile, and the students and intellectuals began to agitate for change.

Seeing the political opportunity this created, into the gap stepped a charismatic, populist leader of the Left, Salvadore Allende, a life-long socialist and supporter of the Communist Party of Chile. Allende had long been an open admirer of Fidel Castro's Cuban revolution and the reforms it had undertaken, particularly those which benefited the poor and dispossessed. He had often run for president, but due to his outspoken support of a Left-wing agenda, not to mention determined behind-the-scenes work by the American government, he had never garnered much support.

By 1970, that had changed. His message of egalitarianism, combined with his view of needed economic reforms, began to create resonance with the intellectuals and students. The fervent opposition by covert operatives of the America Central Intelligence Agency were no longer enough. The mess America was making in Vietnam, the intellectual ferment on American campuses, and the agitation for change by Chile's own poor meant that the egalitarian populism of Allende could no longer be suppressed. In 1970, he put together a coalition of left-wing parties under the banner of the Popular Unity Coalition, and came in first in a field of four candidates of the election of that year. By October, the parliament had certified the election, and Allende became the first freely elected Marxist president in world history, in spite of hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars spent and a huge black propaganda campaign mounted to prevent it, and even launch a coup to prevent its installation. (Blum)

The Problem With Allende
Allende was a minority president. His election had garnered only 36.3% of the electorate for his coalition, and his coalition consisted of four parties, some more left-leaning than he was. His coalition partners pushed for a leftist program, and to a large degree, Allende was swept along. He moved Chile closer to many communist nations, including North Korea, North Vietnam, and China, but especially Cuba, with which he established diplomatic relations for the first time since Castro's revolution in 1959.

As serious as these matters were in the eyes of Washington, the politics didn't compare to the main thrust of his program. He began to attack the structural problems in Chile's economy that had kept the poor in their place. He began to institute measures to end the power of monopoly capitalism, particularly foreign-owned monopolies. In many cases, he nationalized these businesses, and began to operate them at a lower rate of profit, by raising the wages of the poor and working class that were working in them. Among them was the state telephone monopoly, which had been owned by International Telephone and Telegraph. His most egregious act, however, was to nationalize the huge copper mines owned by Anaconda and Kennecott Copper. He had calculated the "excess profits" based on how much more profitable these mines were than similar mines operated elsewhere, and the profit difference was applied against the book value of the mines and their capital assets. The result: Chile owed nothing for the mines. Worse, Allende, a physician by training, understood the cost that malnutrition imposed upon the poor and set out to alleviate the grinding poverty in which so many Chileans were trapped. He ensured that every Chilean schoolchild had access to at least a half-liter of milk each day, and that their parents had access to jobs and the means to feed and educate their children. Median incomes began to rise dramatically in the first two years of Allende's term. To pay for these social programs designed to create opportunities for the poor, rich Chileans who had lived all their lives off of rents, dividends and interest and who had never paid a dime in taxes, found themselves paying taxes for the first time and being forced to morally justify their lives of luxurious liesure at the expense of the poor. They didn't like it one bit. And they began to complain to their friends in Washington.

This did not go down well with Richard Nixon, then U.S. president, and his Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger. Kissinger, as revealed in a recently declassified letter, feared not that Allende's programs of social democracy and governance to the benefit of the general population were failing, but rather that they were succeeding, and all too well (Parenti). Of course, he was hardly afraid that Chilean Marxist troops would come ashore at Gallipole, but rather, he was greatly fearful that the examples of the successful reforms and the concept of social democracy would "infect" Europe (his words), especially southern Italy, where it would upset the established order of rule by large landowners and economic control by huge corporations - i.e., the ruling elite. In other words, Nixon, Kissinger and the ruling elite knew best, and they weren't about to allow the Chilean people or anyone else to make their own decisions and take self-determination into their own hands. Nixon's decision was to impose an embargo on Chile (he said in a staff meeting that he intended to "make the Chilean economy scream" and blame it on Allende) and he began a covert plan to overturn the Allende government. In the words of the U.S. ambassador to Chile, "Not a nut or a bolt will reach Chile.... We will do all in our power to condemn Chileans to utmost poverty" (Foran)

The sanctions imposed by the United states began to bite almost immediately. As imports were curtailed by the sanctions regime, prices for what was available began to rise. Conflict between the rich and the poor began to emerge, as the oligarchy began a series of lockouts against the workers, intending to punish them for their support of Allende's reforms. These actions only stiffened the resolve of the poor to resist the acts of economic repression by the oligarchy, and the result was an increase in support for the coalition. In the elections in March of 1973, congressional seats held by the coalition went from 36% to 44% - marking the largest increase by an incumbent coalition ever in a Chilean by-election - and signalling to the oligarchy that the poor were not to be dismissed lightly. The efforts of the right-wing to destabilize the economy and teach the poor a lesson, were only creating more and more disruption and unrest, as CIA activity and propaganda stepped up and the pressure of the embargo increased.

The CIA's Solution
The CIA began one of its most infamous destabilization campaigns (which was later detailed in open testimony in the Church Committee hearings in the U.S. Senate in 1976), in an effort to discredit the Allende regime and create the atmosphere in which a right-wing coup could succeed. In doing so, the CIA was cooperating with a group of large landowners, fascists, anti-communists, industrialists and owners of the mass media. The inevitable turmoil grew, especially as the oligarchy, in a spectacularly well-organized and successful propaganda campaign created and financed by the CIA, pinned the blame for the turmoil on Allende. Death squads began to use blackmail and intimidation in addition to the traditional activities of kidnapping and murder, intending to wear down the patience of the public. The CIA's involvement, including outright subsidies to friendly newspapers such as El Mercurio and pliable or corrupt labor leaders, caused endless strikes, disruption and inconvenience to the Chilean public, and of course, that disruption was grist for the propaganda mills. The CIA worked hard at creating these disruptions, developing "arrest lists, key civilian installations, key government personnel..." who needed to be dealt with. It went so far as to pay civil servants to make "mistakes" in their jobs.Blum, p. 209-213 Finally, when social unrest reached a level where it appeared that a coup could finally succeed, it was organized and executed on September 11, 1973. Holed up in the presidential palace, La Moneda, as air force jets screamed by outside bombing the place, President Allende addressed the nation live. They proved to be his last words: "Probably Radio Magallanes will be silenced and the calm metal of my voice will not reach you. It does not matter... I have faith in Chile and in her destiny. Others will surmount this gray, bitter moment in which treason seeks to impose itself. You must go on, knowing that sooner rather than later the grand avenues will open along which a free people will pass to build a better society" (Burns)

The leader of the coup was a relatively obscure general, Augusto Pinochet, an open admirer of Nazi fascism, and whose favorite music was the propaganda hymns of Nazi Germany. In his first few months in power, with the help and assistance of the CIA, not to mention a lot of covert American-trained death squads and paramilitaries, more than 30,000 dissidents and leftists were rounded up and tortured, at least 3,000 of them disappearing without a trace. So many were detained that the jails couldn't hold them all, and many were kept in the stadium in Santiago, where they lived and slept in the seats and were tortured in the rooms under the grandstands.

Pinochet's reign of terror extended not just to Chile, but to Chilean exiles throughout Latin America and to even back to his mentor nation, the United States. On September 21, 1976, his "Operation Condor" asassinated, on the streets of Washington, D.C., Orlando Letalier, who had been the Chilean Minister of Defense under Allende. Also killed in the bombing was Ronnie Moffit, an American colleague of Letelier. Clearly, Pinochet was a man whose boundaries were not set by ethical or moral principles. It was this event, and U.S. involvement in it, among other things that led to the Church Committee hearings.

Augusto Pinochet and Milton Friedman
Of course, bringing a reign of terror to Chile wasn not why the CIA had sponsored him. The reason he was there was to reverse the gains of the Allende social democracy and return control of the country's economic and political assets to the oligarchy. Pinochet was convinced, through supporters among the academics in the elite Chilean universities, to try a new series of economic policies, called "neoliberal" by their founders, the economists of the University of Chicago, led by an economist by the name of Milton Friedman, who three years later would go on to win a Nobel Prize in Economics for what he was about to unleash upon Chile.

Friedman and his colleagues were referred to by the Chileans as "the Chicago Boys." The term originally meant the economists from the University of Chicago, but as time went on, as their policies began to disliquidate the middle class and poor, it took on a perjorative meaning. That was because as the reforms were implemented, and began to take hold, the results were not what Friedman and company had been predicting. But what were the reforms?

The reforms were what has come to be called "neoliberalism." To understand what "neoliberal" economics is, one must first understand what "liberal" economics are, and so we'll digress briefly from our look at Chile for a quick introduction to the term:

"Neoliberalism" - What Is It? What Does It Mean?
"Are we in like Manner to be given up to the Disposal of the East India Company, who have now the Assurance, to step forth in Aid of the Minister, to execute his Plan, of enslaving America? Their Conduct in Asia for some Years past, has given simple Proof, how little they regard the Laws of Nations, the Rights, Liberties or Lives of Men. They have levied War, excited Rebellions, dethroned lawful Princes, and sacrificed Millions for the Sake of Gain. The Revenue of Mighty Kingdoms have centered in their Coffers. And these not being sufficient to glut their Avarice, they have, by the most unparalleled Barbarities, Extortions, and Monopolies, stripped the miserable Inhabitants of their Property, and reduce whole Provinces to Indigence and Ruin. Fifteen hundred Thousands, it is said, perished by Famine in one Year, not because the Earth denied its Fruits; but [because] this Company and their Servants engulfed all the Necessaries of Life, and set them so high at a Rate that the poor could not purchase them."
--"Rusticus," an anonymous author writing in "The Alarm," a colonial American newspaper, 1773.
The term stems from the original "liberal" economics of Adam Smith, who published his "Wealth of Nations" in 1776, the same year that the American revolution began in earnest. In that seminal classic, the first to really adequately describe the functioning of market economics, Smith argued that markets work best when there is minimal interference from government, and that neither government, nor market players with any significant share of power, should be allowed to interfere with the "unseen hand" of the free market. What "neoliberals" do not understand, and very few are aware of, is the fact that Adam Smith mentioned limited liability corporations only twelve times in "Wealth of Nations," and each time, he made it clear that his views did not favor them. In fact, he viewed transnational corporations (such as the East India Company, one of the largest transnationals of his day) with considerable mistrust and even alarm. He'd seen their behavior in India and the American colonies, and wanted no part of those abuses which had played no small part in bringing about the American revolution itself, through the tax concessions it had won from the British crown at the ruinous expense of American colonial competitors. Smith felt, as did most of his contemporaries, that markets function only when populated by large numbers of small, preferably local players, who are kept free of the restraining influence of powerful corporations, monopolies and excessive governmental intrusion.

The Founding Fathers of the American revolution had seen the abuses of the East India Company, and shared that mistrust. Laws were enacted throughout the colonies that limited what corporations could do, what size they could achieve, and how they could behave in the market, and most importantly, for how long they would remain enfranchised. Yet the money made by corporations supplying the war effort in the Civil War gave them the money and power they needed to get those laws changed. The first to succeed in doing so was the Union Pacific Railroad, in 1867. Chartered for the purpose of building half of a transcontinental railroad, it was also the first to use bribery, influence peddling, stock "watering," laying shoddy track only to qualify for the subsidies for which it qualified, and a host of other corporate abuses, still seen today. But its power had grown to the point where the abuses were largely unstoppable, largely as the result of misinterpretation of the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Santa Clara County vs. Southern Pacific, in which it was incorrectly assumed that the Supreme Court granted corporations the rights of "natural" persons. Other entrepreneurs, seeing the UPRR's success, and Southern Pacific's new legal rights, emulated them both with a series of other large limited liability corporations, and by the end of the 19th Century, those entrepreneurs had become known as the Robber Barons. Wealth became so concentrated in such few hands that it hobbled the economic growth of the nation in what became known as the Robber Baron Era, or The Guilded Age.

By the Great Depression of the 1930's, it had become apparent that unrestrained free markets had some serious flaws. First, the unrestrained accumulation of wealth brought with it the unrestrained accumulation of power - railroads were, for example, literally buying and selling corrupt state legislatures and U.S. senators among themselves as if they were commodities. The abuses of the Robber Baron Era had brought with it a replay of the abuses of the East India Company a century earlier and created in the popular mind an understanding of the need to rein in the power that the unrestrained concentration of wealth could bring. Second, it had become obvious that there were certain functions that simply worked better when government ran them; road networks were the first, as it was obviously impractical to have to pay tolls to every property owner along a thousand miles of road. Second was the postal system. Chaos would rein if one had to buy a stamp for every private mail operator a letter might have to be handled by, so a single, unified postal system made a lot of sense. Water supplies and sewage and garbage collection were other examples. In a later era, electric power and telephone utilities would also arise as problematical, when streets were being rendered constantly impassible by continuous construction being done by one utility company after another. Some streets were left dark at noon by the forest of telephone wires from different, competing companies on overhead cables and wires.

Additionally, it became apparent that if private banks were allowed to freely control the money supply without any restraint, that a continuous cycle of boom and bust, caused by monetary inflation and contraction were inevitable. These business cycles had wreaked havoc and had caused much misery throughout the 19th century, and into the 20th, leading to the overwhelming misery of the Great Depression. What to do about it?

Into that gap of understanding stepped John Maynard Keynes. Keynes explained that government had a legitimate role in economic management, and in the regulation of "natural monopolies," whether by direct ownership or by tight regulation of private ownership. By engaging in deficit spending during contractions, and running budget surpluses during inflation, business cycles could be reined in and the misery of business panics could be avoided. Further, he argued among other things that business cycles had the effect of transferring vast sums of wealth from the poor to the rich, as a result of the fact that the poor had few means of defending themselves from the effects of a business panic or a monetary inflation, and the rich not only could defend themselves, but could even exploit the business cycle. This is why unregulated markets always created societies with a tiny, rich elite and a vast, disposessed lower class.

Keynes' ideas became known as "Keynesian economics." They became the cornerstone of Franklin D. Roosevelt's policies in dealing with the effects of the Great Depression. Roosevelt could see that the Crash of '29 had transferred truly vast amounts of wealth from the poor to the rich, leaving a whole nation impoverished, and so he sought to tax that wealth and allow access to it by means of government make-work policies. The idea was to not only create a middle class, but transfer most of the poor into it my providing them the opportunities to uplift their circumstances. In doing so, he earned the undying emnity of the wealthy, whose money he was taxing to pay for it. They sought their revenge. They got it by the "invention" of "neoliberalism."

"Neoliberalism" is not based on Adam Smith, as is often claimed for it by the libertarian propaganda, but is, in reality, based largely on the ideas of an Austrian economist, Friedrick Hayek, who had written in the 1930's that the control of an economy by a government is the "road to serfdom," as he titled his treatise. Asserting that human rights sprang from property rights, he claimed that a society could be no more free than its economy. The two principal failures of his analysis, were of course, first, the premise that human rights are a function of property rights, and that a society that planned its economy was doomed to serfdom. What Hayek never considered is that the obverse of such a policy is obviously that someone who has no property, has no rights, which means that person is, quite obviously, vulnerable to the very serfdom that Hayek claimed to fear. Witness the millions in debt-slavery in India and much of the rest of the world - the very serfdom that Hayek claimed to be repulsed by. The second major error was the assumption that corporations were entitled to the same property rights as individuals, and yet somehow deserved an exemption from liability that individuals do not enjoy - a basic inequality of rights. But nevertheless, his ideas had a great deal of resonance among social libertarians, who were highly enamored of an economic theory that corresponded to their social theories. It also found additional resonance in the writings of the Russian philosopher and popular novelist, Ayn Rand, and became the basis of her philosophical celebration of what can only charitably be described as selfishness.

The conservatives of the Republican Party in the U.S. in the 1960's and 1970's used that period of slow economic growth as a means of persuading policymakers that Keynesian economics had somehow failed, and that only a turn to the deregulation advocated by Hayek could solve the problems of "stagflation" that had become such an intractible problem. So, claiming that Keynes was dead, "neoliberal economics" was born, brought to life in America by a bald, mousy-looking economist from the University of Chicago, by the name of Milton Friedman. Friedmand knew that Hayek's ideas were functionally anti-egalitarian, regardless of the title of his most famous book, yet Friedman privately, but freely admitted that he was not an egalitarian and didn't care about fairness. This made him the instant darling of the "neo-liberals."

Friedman was the undying, sworn enemy of Keynesian economics. He widely publicized what he considered to be a need to return to the "unseen hand" of the market to cure the "stagflation" of the time. His ideas were exactly what the right-wing rich elites needed in an economic theory. It was simple, easy to understand, superfically reasonable and logical, and above all else, suited their need for an economic theory, which, if implemented, would enable them to accumulate wealth and thereby transfer its accompanying power to themselves without restraint. It suited their desire for revenge and their greed and avarice beautifully. Friedman very quickly became their darling, lavishly gifted, and being driven around the University of Chicago campus in a chauffered limosine. Paul Samuelson, Friedman's long-time rival and the principal advocate of careful, sensible regulation of business and government intervention in the market in the Keynesian mold, tirelessly warned of the anti-eglaitarian dangers of Friedman's approach, but amidst the propaganda, he was largely forgotten, even though it was his ideas that had not only prevented a return to business cycles, but had created a vast middle class in America in just a couple of decades following world war II. And ultimately, it was Samuelson's ideas which in the end saved the Chilean economy.

The "Neoliberal" Chilean Miracle
The "neoliberals" needed a testbed to "prove" their ideology and refine their repressive methods. And since Chile had just been handed to a kindred spirit, Augusto Pinochet, he was recuited to try them out and see how well they worked. The idea wasn't really to actually test them, as much as it was to create the illusion that they worked, whether they actually did or not, so they could be sold everywhere else in the world under a variety of labels: "neoliberalism," "free-market economics," "libertarian economics" and "the Washington Consensus." Most objective economists knew quite well from the beginning that they wouldn't work in the long run and many said so publicly, but were quickly shouted down in the intellectual coup-de-etat of the Ronald Reagan years.

There were five cardinal points of "neoliberal" agenda that were and are to be implemented wherever it was or is to be implemented, beginning in Chile. They include:

* The supremacy of the free market. The market was to rule supreme, unrestrained by the intervention of government, labor unions, or anything else (other than corporate monopoly power) that constrained the operation of market forces, regardless of how much social disorder, suffering or exploitation results. Any undesirable effects are to be ascribed simply to "unidentified interventions" which, when they were identified, could be eliminated, and the problem solved thereby. Monopolies were simply assumed, against all evidence, to be self-limiting (though no one ever managed to explain how DeBeers Consolidated Mines had managed to create and maintain a worldwide monopoly on the diamond business for more than a century).
* Cutting, and eliminating when possible, expenditure for social services. Again, in the name of reducing government interference in the market, it was not necessary for government to involve itself in social welfare programs. To explain the obvious sufferinng that results, it is therefore claimed that when the poor suffer, it is due to their own laziness that they do not better themselves. That the accumulation of money was equivalent to the accumulation of power, with its attendant distortion of the functionings of the market, was not a concern. That this led inevitably to the disempowerment of the poor was not a concern - the poor were blamed for their condition by claiming their "inferiority" or "bad decisions." Social justice was a non-issue.
* Deregulation. If government is interfering in the market, it will only lead to a loss of profits, and therefore, government regulation had to be assumed to be bad. Therefore, it has to be reduced or eliminated, even in monopolistic situations. One neoliberal, Grover Norquist, an official in the George W. Bush administration commented that he wanted to reduce the size of government to the point where he "could drown it in the bathtub" - and then go on to do so.
* Privatization. Since government is assumed, as a given, to be inefficient, lazy, bloated and uneconomical in the provisioning of goods and services, it was only reasonable to presume that private enterprise could and would perform the delivery of services in a more efficient manner, and hence any activity that delivers goods or services to citizens should and must be privatized. Never was an explanation offered for the contrary incentive of capitalism - that the capitalist's basic profit-driven incentive is to charge as much money as possible for providing as few goods and services as possible.
* Elimination of the concept of "Community" or the "Common Good." Since this is antithetical to the notion of privatization and "rugged individualism," the concept of the commons (the air we must all breathe, the water we must all drink, etc.) to them, reeks faintly of Communism, it is assumed to be bad, wrong, and hence is oppositional to the "neoliberal" agenda. Such notions as public health, public education, etc., are to be replaced by private initiative, as anything else is simply considered to be a manifestation of lassitude, indolence and governmental dependence.

Pinochet allowed Milton Friedman and his cronies, principally Arnold Harberger, along with a small clique of Chilean "neoliberal" economists to implement this "neoliberal" agenda. Here was Friedman's chance to prove himself right and Samuelson wrong. Friedman was given a more-or-less free hand to implement whatever economic reforms he deemed needed, and Friedman did so with a vengeance. In a quick succession of reforms, the collective-bargaining law was abolished, essentially eliminating the influence of labor unions. The minimum wage law was abolished. The Social Security System was privatized, by being evenly divided among six companies, each to compete with each other. Public assets were sold, often at bargain basement prices, to whoever would buy them.

On the political side, Pinochet did his part by rounding up any opponents of the "neoliberal" agenda. Anyone who questioned the wisdom of the reforms being implemented by the "Chicago Boys" was swiftly rounded up and, as often as not, never heard from again. Trade union organizers, economic justice advocates, Leftists and anyone else who objected to the reforms began to disappear. By the end of his regime, Pinochet was responsible for the deaths of at least 3,000 people and the disappearance of many thousands more.

Gradually eliminating their political competition within the military and civilian bureacracy, the Chicago Boys had, by 1975, accumulated enough political capital to implement their program pretty much as they pleased. They began a series of far-reaching reforms - which they called "shock treatment" - which included devaluing and floating the currency, steeply increasing interest rates and slashing tariffs to counteract the inflation that the devaluation would have caused, while greatly reducing public expenditures. They abolished all taxes on wealth and business profits, and began slashing government workforces, including selling off any and all state-owned enterprises.

Social reforms included school choice, labor law reform, social welfare reform, and many other similar proposals that would be instantly familiar to current American conservatives as part of their own agenda. The effects, however, were exactly what American social liberals had predicted - a generalized increase in poverty, disease, homelessness, and a general spread of squalor, unrest and disaffection - all effects that were of no concern whatever to the Chicago Boys.

The land reforms carried out by the two previous administrations, including Allende's, were also reversed. But the reversals were not to restore the land to its previous owners, but rather to consolidate ownership of it for the use of export-oriented corporations. The slogan was "the three 'F's,' fruit, forest products and fish." Never mind that those whose land had been expropriated were not compensated or offered other means of employment. They were left to fend for themselves, swelling the ranks of the already previously disposessed, former members of the working class who had worked, often for years, in the newly-abandoned factories, and were left with nothing.

The Chicago Boys began privatizing anything and everything in sight - 212 state-owned enterprises in all, including utilities - resulting in steep rises in utility costs, transportation costs and health care costs for ordinary Chileans. The banks were an especially interesting case. The Chicago Boys convinced Pinochet that freeing the banks from government regulation would attract foreign investment, and competition would enforce fiscal discipline and honest accounting. So in a case of deregulation gone berserk, the general sold off all six state-owned banks to the first comers. They quickly fell into the hands of two speculators, Javier Vial and Manuel Cruzsat. These two then promptly used the banks as collateral on loans obtained from foreign sources to buy up local industrial enterprises. Disliquifying these enterprises generated more cash, which Vial and Cruzsat then used for even more leveraged buyouts, and as the end approached, these go-getters got themselves gone. It was a classic Ponzi scheme. Soon, Chileans faced the problem of having no trustworth banks at all through which they could conduct banking transactions.

Freed from the heavy hand of bureacracy, business regulation, taxes and public-owned enterprise, the economy took off - right off a cliff and into a severe recession. The slowdown had the predictable effect on Chile's industrial sector, resulting in massive layoffs and reduced economic activity. Suddenly, Chile's large and prosperous middle class found itself facing huge unemployment increases, rapidly falling salaries and rapidly increasing living costs.

The economic performance of the Chilean economy after the application of the "shock treatments" was anything but impressive. While there were three short bursts of impressive economic growth (which were impressive mostly because they were really just periods of recovery), they were interspersed with the classic steep, sharp, much lengthier contractions, which simply added to the growing misery of the poor and the former middle class. The later recessions, the last of which synchronized with world-wide recessions, were exacerbated by the liberalization of trade policies, making it more difficult for local industries to compete, either locally or internationally. Add to that the banking collapse caused by the privatization of the banking system, created widespread problems with credit, especially for the poor, and the stage was set for economic failure. Blood and glass began to litter factory floors throughout the country. Real economic output declined by a full 19% in 1982 and 1983 alone. The Chicago Boys, in classic Orwellian doublespeak, declared the results a terrific success, in spite of the remarkably poor metrics. The U.S. State Department seemed to agree, declaring "Chile is a casebook study in sound economic management." Ronald Reagan's propaganda machine was also highly supportive. Almost no one questioned it when Art Laffer, a Reagan protoge and colleague of Milton Friedman, coined the phrase, "The Chilean Miracle," and stated that Chile is "a showcase of what supply-side economics can do" (Palast) It certainly was for those who bothered to look.

Back in the streets of Chile, things hadn't been a miracle, they'd been a disaster. It was the results of the privatization of the banks that proved to be the last straw for the Chilean people. By 1982 the pyramid scheme being run by Vial and Cruzsat had collapsed, leading to the foreclosure of the banks and the complete loss of the meager savings of millions of Chileans, and surplus labor led to their inability to live day to day on their rapidly falling salaries. Riots and demonstrations by people so desperate they no longer feared bullets forced Pinochet to reconsider the Chicago Boys and their failed economic policies which had simply been re-creating the boom-bust cycle that had caused the hated Keynes to formulate his theories of government intervention in the first place five decades earlier. Pinochet demanded and got the resignation of his economics minister, Sergio de Castro. It was a sign that the Chicago Boys had fallen from grace. The dictatorship quickly moved to re-nationalize the banks to keep them afloat and prevent a liquidity crisis and economic downturn from turning into a complete wholesale economic collapse. He moved swiftly to re-impose some of those policies most hated by his supporters - a minimum wage law, a restoration of collective bargaining rights and a jobs-creation program to create 500,000 new jobs. The newly privatized pension schemes were also being run like pyramid schemes, and were on the brink of collapse. To save them, he imposed stringent new regulations concerning their operations. To save the economy, Pinochet embarked on a nationalization scheme that would have left even Allende breathless - he expropriated at will, offering little if any compensation for what he nationalized. Much of what he appropriated would eventually be slowly re-privatized, much more carefully this time, but the very symbol of Chile and the mainstay of its foreign exchange earnings - the copper industry - would remain in state hands. Going even further, Pinochet instituted a law - still in force - that gives the military 10% of the revenues from the copper production. All this caused Pinochet's critics to quip that he'd embarked on "the Chicago Road to Socialism." The Chicago Boys were summarily dumped on a plane to Chicago - and told they weren't going to be welcomed back anytime soon.

But Pinochet's new economic team still included the Chilean "neoliberals," however. They continued to push for the "neoliberal" agenda, mostly as a result of the fact that the generals were in power in Chile because the Reagan administration in Washington wanted them to be, and because Reagan was a "neoliberal" himself and insisted on these policies. So those that caused only mild discomfort, if not the ones causing huge disruptions, remained in place. To this day, Santiagoans ride city buses run by private companies, and put up with delays, bad service, disruptions and dirty equipment, rather than the clean, efficient and well-run buses they had before. But at least they can now confidently put their money in regulated state banks.

A Second Look
By 1988, Pinochet had convinced himself that the country and his institutionalizaton of the reforms he had instituted, were ready for the plebiscite. In an act of hubris so typical of right-wingers and the neoliberal ideologues, he held the plebiscite, confident of victory. The only problem was that he lost. Even with all the spoiled ballots and stuffed ballot boxes, the refusals to vote, the vote rigging that was rampant, Pinochet still could not claim a majority of the votes cast. He had to admit to defeat. It was a bitter pill for the old man to have to swallow. His neoliberalism, as well has his right-wing authoritarianism, had made him the most hated man in all of Chile.

The people of Chile had had enough of Pinochet and his "neoliberalism," yet they were saddled with a constitution that virtually institutionalized both Pinochet and what "neoliberal" reforms remained. So even though he was officially gone, he was still the power behind the scenes, and everyone knew it.

So even as I write this, many of the "neoliberal" reforms he didn't reverse remain largely intact. What has become of Chile? Now, twenty-odd years on, we can see the long term results of "neoliberal" economics: From the beginning of the reforms of the Chicago Boys in 1973 through 1986, there was no economic growth. Real mean salaries, adjusted for inflation, have declined by 10% since 1986 and by 18% from what they were during the Allende years. Median salaries have fared even worse, declining by 30% over the same period, signalling a torrent of wealth from the poor and middle class to the rich. When Allende was in power, less than 20% of the country lived in absolute poverty; by 1990 40% did. That figure has remained largely constant since. A third of the nation now survives on less than $30 per week. Some miracle indeed.

Enthusiastic supporters of the Pinochet reforms like to point out that since 1986, there has been a 7 percent annual growth rate; what they fail to mention is that this occurred only after 1986, after privatization of the banks was reversed, and collective bargaining rights and minimum wage laws were restored; after jobs-creation programs were instituted and privatization of the principal source of foreign exchange was reversed. And they fail to point out that all of that additional wealth has gone into the pockets of the few; the middle class and poor have seen none of it. The much-ballyhooed privatized Social Security system, which is being held up as a model for the United States to follow, is seriously being considered for re-nationalization, since the public system that runs along side it is producing vastly better results (almost twice the benefits of the private systems). When it was privatized, those who opted to remain in the public system are sure glad now that they did.

Yet the remaining "neoliberal" reforms continue to bite. The reforms are the reason why nearly all of that much ballyhooed annual growth has gone straight into corporate profits that benefit the rich, and less than ever into the pockets of the poor and working classes - note the declining median income as mentioned above. Milton Friedman and his Chicago Boys are quite well aware of this, but simply don't care, because social justice is not their concern. All that matters to them is the increase in Gross Domestic Product - evidence of economic growth. The fact that it the increase is going entirely into the pockets of a tiny handful of the rich, suits him just fine. Remember, in his view the wealthy are wealthy because they deserve to be - and the same for the poor. As he often said, fairness was not an issue for him - the theory is apparently more important than the results of the theory - in other words, it was a religion, not a science.

Consider that even in the United States, which is hardly a paragon of equitable wealth distribution, 60% of economic output goes into wages, and 40% into corporate profits. Yet in Chile, those numbers are exactly reversed. Chile now rates as the seventh worst nation in the world for equality of wealth distribution - tied with Kenya and Zimbabwe. Nearly all of the wealth being generated by the 7% growth rate is going straight into the pockets of a tiny number of the elite - and the only construction boom in the country in the last fifteen years has been going on in the very richest suburbs of Santiago.

Some miracle.

The Salvation of Chile
The salvation of Chile, then, to the extent it has had one, clearly wasn't Pinochet, nor was it the Chicago Boys. It was a recognition by Pinochet, however reluctantly, and in however limited a fashion, that the "neoliberal reforms" had led to intolerable levels of misery and social unrest.

It was, in fact, the re-introduction of many of the reforms that had been originally introduced by Salvador Allende.

As Greg Palast, an investigative journalist for the British Broadcasting Company noted, there was a miracle, all right, but "it was bright red." The color of Allende's alleged Marxism.

In essence, the salvation of Chile was at least a limited abandonment of free-market fundamentalism and the "Chilean Miracle." It was a recognition that the free market simply does not solve all economic problems, but actually creates many of them, and ignores completely the social consequences of economic decisionmaking.

What Went Wrong
What went wrong was simply the failure of Milton Friedman and his Chicago Boys to come clean about their real agenda, which is not to eliminate poverty or elevate the working class. What went wrong was that the dogmatism of Milton Friedman in his role as an intellectual poodle of the ultra-rich, rather than being an honest broker of economic policies intended to "lift all the boats" - not just the yachts tied to the pier, while threatening the skiffs sitting on the beach.

What went wrong was America's own preoccupation with free-market fundamentalism, and our failure to look beyond the surface propaganda, and our complicity in forcing a discredited and defective economic model on others reluctant to accept it.

But what went wrong mostly was the complete and utter failure of Friedman and the Chicago Boys, Pinochet and his American backers, to consider that economic activity does not occur in a vacuum. It occurs in a social and moral context, and economic decisions have social consequences that simply must be considered. And failure to do so can have severe social consequences that feed back into the economic decisionmaking, and thereby undermine the theoretical framework of the economic premises on which the decisions were based.

What Really Works
There are examples of nations that have lifted themselves from third-world status into first-world status. Japan, Korea, the nations of Western Europe, all come to mind. Other, more recent examples of nations that have begun to lift themselves up are also relevant.

Even the United States was once a third-world nation, and it too had to lift itself up.

How have these nations managed to reduce poverty and improve the standard of living of their inhabitants? It turns out that there are several factors that are common to all such nations. These factors are well-known to economists, and aren't considered controversial anymore, except to free-market fundamentalists.

It is really rather simple, and there are four key factors, and they all contradict the conventional wisdom of free-market fundamentalism:

First, tariff barriers that protect targeted local industries from ruinous foreign competition and allow governments to incubate local industries through subsidy and import substitution. This is how the American steel industry came into being. In the 1860's, most steel in the world, including most of what was used in the United States was produced by Europe. By 1900, the situation was reversed. This situation was accomplished through the use of tariffs in the United States to generate the cash used to subidize exports. The same thing happened with the American agricultural sector - tariffs kept cheap foreign food out, while the U.S. government fostered the growth of a strong and vibrant agriculture through targeted subsidies, the university extension program, and the creation of a rural transportation infrastructure. Once these programs were complete, tariffs were reduced and subsidies reduced or eliminated. The result is that American agriculture now feeds not only America, but much of the world.

Second, government has to work carefully and judiciously with local business to stimulate research, development and the improvement of efficiencies so that they can compete on world markets, and enforce discipline by removing support from players who do not improve their economic efficiency or the quality of their output. An example is the American agricultural industry. It went virtually nowhere in world markets until the U.S. Congress created the university extension system, with its local offices and agents that helped farmers come to understand what they needed to do to produce economically and efficiently enough, with sufficient quality, to compete in world markets. This is how first Japan, and later Korea and Taiwan have become world leaders in the production of consumer electronic goods, and did so in less time than it took Pinochet and the Chicago Boys to ruin Chile's economy.

Third, economic planners have to come to realize that you can't sell something to somebody who has no money - so social justice issues do matter in a purely economic context, even if, like Milton Friedman, you are unconcerned about the moral issues of social injustices. If all economic productivity is absorbed by a tiny elite through power accumulation created by capital accumulation that is not shared through living wages, there is no purchasing power left in an economy to create markets for the goods produced. Government simply must not allow wealth to become excessively concentrated, however that is accomplished. It can avoid this by using taxation of business profits, inheritance taxes and other such means to prevent the excessive concentration of wealth, and use the monies derived for programs to alleviate poverty and social deprivation, and create educational and economic opportunities for the poor. If that sounds like socialism, that is not an accident - socialism is one means (though not necessarily the best) of attempting to do just that.

Fourth, some exports have to be stimulated by subsidy and some imports restricted by tarrifs. Relying on "comparative advantage" simply doesn't work in the real world. Is the automobile industry located in Detroit because Detroit has a comparative advantage? No. It is there because that's where Henry Ford happened to be living when he decided to get into the automobile business. Is Boeing located in Seattle because Seattle has a comparative advantage in aircraft production? No. It's there because that's where the Boeing family happened to be living at the time Boeing's founder decided to start the company. The notion that a nation should stick to doing only that in which it has a "comparative advantage" is also ludicrous when you stop and think about it. Bolivia has a comparative advantage in only one thing - beef production. Does that mean that all Bolivians should want to be gauchos? Hardly! Bolivians want to do the whole range of things that other people in other nations do, and the tax, tariff and subsidy structure of the Bolivian government should reflect that. Additionally, nations, like families, have to earn their keep. For a nation, it is foreign exchange - you cannot buy with other countries' currency when you don't have that currency to spend. So to control purchases and to stimulate sales to keep current accounts in balance, nations, like families, simply must control imports and encourage exports, whether through tax policy or by adjusting the value of the national currency. There is no other way in the long run. At some point, imports and exports have to come to a monetary balance.

Since this is already well understood in the academic world, why is it so controversial? Why are these points so vigorously disputed?

Why do the IMF, WTO and World Bank Aggressively Promote Such Defective Dogma?
There is a widespread assumption that the people who run the International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization and the World Bank are well-meaning, sincere people who really want to make a difference in the world, helping end poverty and deprivation. And for most of the bureaucrats who work in those institutions, that's true.

This belief, is understandable; it is, after all, these institutions that were created specifically for the noble purpose of empowering the poor and disadvantaged. If these people weren't sincere, and weren't there to make a difference, they would be quickly replaced, wouldn't they?

It is certainly a comforting assumption to think that they would be. After all, the stated purpose of these organizations is to solve the problems of world poverty, end hunger, disease and want and the wars these problems create. Why should anyone think that these organizations aren't really sincerely making an effort to solve these problems?

Well, for a start, there's Chile. If these organizations had made any effort at all to study these doctrines have had in Chile, they'd quickly realize that these doctrines simply don't work as advertised. And it's not just Chile, either. These doctrines have had a dramatic effect in Mexico, where the institution of these policies have caused real wages to decline from $1.32 per hour on average in the in 1970's to only 45 cents per hour today, after the imposition of NAFTA. And they're still declining. The real output of Mexican industry has declined several percent since the North American Free Trade Agreement was signed. And it is still going down.

Beyond Mexico, the destruction of other economies, particularly Argentina, also stand out as dramatic examples of the failures of "neoliberal" policies. Argentina once had an economic output that was equivalent to most nations in Europe. But no more. More than half of its population now lives in abject poverty, the unemployment rate exceeds 30%, real wages are dropping dramatically and economic activity is shriveling at the rate of 25% per year. Why? Because the very same prescriptions imposed on Chile have been imposed by the IMF and World Bank on Argentina, which followed them willingly and to the letter.

Who killed the Argentine economy? The IMF did. And what is truly shocking is that it knew exactly what it was doing. It was part of a deliberate, calculated plan. That's a shocking allegation that I wouldn't believe myself if there weren't proof of it.

Greg Palast, an investigative reporter for the BBC and the Guardian, a British daily of considerable reputation, has obtained documents that are truly a smoking gun. One is a "technical memorandum of understanding" dated September 5, 2000, signed by Pedro Pou, the president of the Central Bank of Argentina. In it, he agreed to largely the same conditions that killed the Chilean economy:

* A twenty percent reduction in the budget deficit, at a time when the economy was poised on the brink of a recession - not a very bright thing to do, when all economists agree that under recessionary pressure, budget deficits should actually be increased, not reduced, even if that means temporary spending deficits.
* Under a boldface heading, titled "improving the conditions of the poor," Argentina agreed to drop salaries in the emergency employment program by 20%. How reducing salaries benefits the recipients remains unexplained.
* A 12-15% reduction in the salaries of civil servants. With less money to spend, of course they spent less. Not a happy thing to have happen during a period of economic contraction and tight money supplies.
* A currency peg of $1 to each Argentine Peso, in spite of the fact that there was downward pressure on the Peso. Pegging a currency when there's downward pressure on it is a guaranteed formula for a reduction in economic activity - imported goods become cheaper, so locally produced goods competing with them become less competitive - and the people who were producing them get laid off during a time of lowering economic activity. Not a wise plan.

To finance this scheme, Argentina agreed to borrow the $128 billion in foreign exchange to support the peg scheme at an interest rate of 16%. The interest, at 16%, therefore comes to $27 billion per year, a billion more than the $26 billion in the loans for which these concessions were extracted!

How do the Argentine people benefit by taking out this loan? They don't! As you can see, they actually lose money!

Why, then, did the IMF even propose such an absurd scheme? And why on earth would Argentina agree to it?

It all makes sense when you start to look at the principals involved, who they are, and how they benefit.

Who benefits by all this and how did they get Argentina to sign such a ridiculous loan document? One must understand who the IMF is and what its agenda is. The International Monetary Fund was one of the three institutions set up in the Bretton Woods Conference at the end of World War II. It was created at the insistence of the great economist, John Maynard Keynes, who insisted that it was necessary to help smaller nations overcome the limitations imposed by their economic size, and help them avoid the misery of economic declines, such as the Great Depression, which was fresh in the memories of conference participants. Large nations like the United States could avoid such declines by careful monetary and fiscal policy, but this option simply was not open to smaller nations. So the U.S., in concert with other nations, created this fund to help smaller, poorer nations work around the limitations imposed by their size.

Until Milton Friedman's "neoliberal" crowd arrived on the scene, it largely behaved that way. But the advent of "neoliberalism" created an opportunity for the kingpins of international finance to use the IMF as basically an extortion and bill-collecting mechanism. The imposition of Friedman's long-discredited policies, in spite of their horrible social costs, made it possible for the international megabanks to use the IMF to collect outstanding loans. Siezing that opportunity, they used their influence to make sure that their people were installed in positions of influence in the IMF. The result has been that the IMF has been hijacked, and has become essentially a means by which international finance force borrowing at userous interest rates, and then collect their loans, no matter how much misery this causes.

It doesn't end there. Others, seeing an opportunity to use the IMF to create and exploit bankruptcy on a vast scale, have also moved in like greedy vultures, using the bankruptcies created by IMF policies as an opportunity to purchase national assets at bargain-basement prices. A classic case is the privatization of water utilities. Using the rubric of "privatization," this means that the poor often find themselves paying vastly more for water, prices they often cannot afford. So the newly-privatized water utility, no longer willing to subsidize water supply to the poor, cuts off the water, and the poor end up carrying water long distances, often from contaminated sources. The result is lowered economic performance (spending time carrying water and recovering from water-borne illness), more disease and the higher social costs to society that result from that disease and child mortality. Even if one does not consider the inhumanity of depriving people of clean, subsidized water, the raw economic costs end up higher, by far, than the presumed "efficiency" gained by private operation of the water utility. When these utilities are privatized, they are usually sold to large foreign multinationals who expatriate the profits - and those expatriated profits become a foreign exchange liability against the country (raising the cost of imports and discouraging other foreign investment), instead of being reinvested or offsetting taxes at home. The hard, basic fact is that economic decisions don't occur in a social vacuum. But "neoliberalism" fails utterly to consider that to be a problem.

This subversion of the goals of the IMF and its hijacking by the "neoliberals" has meant that this only source of credit to many nations has made those nations vulnerable to blackmail. All nations require credit, not just to finance infrastructure projects, but to finance imports as well. This was one of the goals of the IMF - to facilitate that credit. But when a nation finds itself spending more abroad in finance costs than it takes in in export sales, as many third world nations do, it must seek help in financing the debt that creates. That vulnerabilty means that nations often have to do what the IMF wants - even if it is extortionary. So the people of the third world lose, and the international bankers and multinational capitalists win. Once again.

Further proof, if any were needed, that those who have the gold, make the rules. And they make the rules to suit themselves - and the rest of us be damned.

Friday, January 30, 2009

SEMEN GRESIK ANGGARKAN CAPEX USD 390 JUTA TAHUN INI

JAKARTA – PT Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk (SMGR) akhirnya resmi mereviesi capex nya.. Namun menurut Direktur Utama SMGR, Dwi Soetjipto, kebijakan tersebut diambil perseroan guna melakukan efisiesi usaha yang masih terpengaruh krisis ekonomi global. Perubahan capex tersebut juga telah mendapat persetujuan dari RUPSLB SMGR pada Jumat (30/1).

Sebelumnya, sesuai dengan hasil RUPSLB Desember 2007, SMGR menganggarkan capex sebanyak USD 1,6 miliar untuk empat tahun berikutnya. Capex tersebut sedianya digunakan untuk pengembangan beberapa proyek baru antara lain, pembangunan 10 unit pembangkit listrik dan dua pabrik baru. 

Rencananya pembangunan 10 unit pembangkit listrik berkapasitas 410 MW itu dan pembangunan dua pabrik di Jawa dan Sulawesi akan menghabiskan dana USD 573 juta. Lokasi pembangunan pembangkit listrik sendiri direncanakan berada di Tuban, Indarung Padang dan Tonasa Sulsel. Namun belakangan akhirnya dari 10 proyek pembangkit listrik tersebut, hanya dua yang bisa diteruskankan pembangunannya. Lokasi pembangunan 2 pembangkit listrik berkapasitas 70 MW tersebut berada di Sulawesi. SMGR akan menginvestasikan USD 114 juta untuk dua pembangkitnya itu. Pelaksanannya sendiri akan dimulai Q1 tahun ini.

Menurut Dwi, alasan pembatalan pembangunan 8 pembangkit listrik tersebut karena pihak ke tiga sebagai partner ternyata tidak bisa menyediakan kewajibannya. Dengan adanya pembatalan tersebut maka capex SMGR sampai 2012 menjadi sekitar USD 1,3 miliar saja. Mengenai kelanjutan pembangunan pabrik di Jawa dan Sulawesi, Dwi meyakinkan bahwa budget nya tetap sesuai target awal. “Tidak ada ekskalasi anggaran proyek itu” ujarnya.

Lebih lanjut menurut Direktur Keuangan SMGR Cholil Hasan, penggunaan capex sebesar USD 1,3 miliar tersebut mayoritas akan terjadi di tahun 2009 dan 2010. “Sekitar 60 persen capex itu akan terpakai di 2009 dan 2010, dimana tahun ini akan terpakai 30 persennya” kata Cholil. Ia sendiri mengatakan, bahwa porsi dana internal untuk pembiayaan capex itu juga meningkat hingga lebih dari 40 persen dari sebelumnya 30 persen saja. Ia meyakinkan bahwa kas internal SMGR masih cukup kuat untuk itu. Ia menyebutkan angka Rp 3 triliun ketika ditanya posisi kas perseroan.

SMGR nampaknya juga kemungkinan akan meneruskan program buyback lagi. Hal tersebut tercermin dari pernyataan Dwi yang mengatakan bahwa perubahan harga saham SMGR juga menjadi fokusnya tahun ini. Pada penutupan perdagangan kemarin, harga saham SMGR tak beranjak dari posisi pembukaan Rp 3.475. SMGR memang telah menyelesaikan buyback periode 13 Oktober 2008 dan 9 Januari 2009, dengan realisasi pembelian 68,032 juta lembar saham senilai Rp 198,7 miliar. Jumlah tersebut setara dengan 1,147 persen saham beredar SMGR.

Terkait ekspansi luar negeri, SMGR mengakui pihaknya telah menunjuk Credit Suisse untuk bertindak sebagai advisornya. Ekspansinya sendiri kemungkinan masih berada di kawasan Asia Tenggara, karena menurut SMGR potensi usahanya lebih besar. Sementara itu kebutuhan batubara SMGR tahun ini, adalah sebesar 3 juta ton. Pasokannya sendiri akan diambil dari Sumatera dan Kalimantan. Batubara tersbut akan digunakan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan energi tiga pabriknya yang total berkapasitas 17.700.000 ton per tahun. Selama 2008 lalu, produksi semen SMGR mencapai 18,2 juta ton naik dari tahun 2007 yang hanya sebesar 17,1 juta ton. (gal)

Deni Hamzah/Pengamat Pasar Modal
Sektor semen walaupun diprediksi hanya akan tumbuh 3 persen namun masih cukup berpotensi. Apalagi kebijakan stimulus infrastruktur sudah akan diimplementasikan. Sektor properti juga kemungkinan akan membaik seiring dengan pemangkasan BI rate beberapa waktu lalu. Hal ini tentu akan membawa dampak positif bagi sektor semen. Untuk Semen Gresik, upaya melakukan ekspansi ke luar negeri merupakan salah satu langkah yang tepat. Untuk buybacknya sendiri nampaknya belum cukup efektif. Jika memang akan dilakukan buyback tahap II harus menunggu kondisi market yang tepat. Saat ini saham sektor semen paling bagus adalah dari Semen Gresik, Indocement, dan Holcim. Rekomendasi SMGR buy, INTP buy on weakness, SMCB hold.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

PT MOBILE TELECOM TBK SEGERA RIGHTS ISSUE

JAKARTA - PT Mobile-8 Telecom Tbk (FREN) akan meneruskan rencana penerbitan saham baru (rights issue). Pihak FREN menyatakan sudah bernegosiasi dengan 2-3 investor asal Timur Tengah yang berminat menjadi pembeli siaga (standby buyer). Direktur Utama Mobile-8 Telecom, Wityasmoro Sih Handayanto, mengatakan, rights issue merupakan rencana perseroan sejak pertengahan 2008. Rencana tersebut belum terealisasi, karena pasar modal dalam kondisi yang berpotensi krisis. "Tapi kita masih berniat rights issue yang kemungkinan tahun ini" katanya.

FREN sendiri telah menunjuk PT Bhakti Securities sebagai pelaksana standby buyer terkait rencana rights issue tersebut. Namun pihak FREN masih enggan menyebutkan jumlah saham yang akan dilepas, karena menurut mereka sejauh ini semua masih dalam perhitungan. Lebih lanjut Wityasmoro mengatakan bahwa, pihaknya telah memperoleh persetujuan dari pemegang saham mayoritas FREN, yakni Jerash Investment Ltd. Penyertaan Jerash Investment Ltd di FREN mencapai 32 persen atau setara dengan 6.475.479.000 saham. FREN bahkan juga mengaku telah mempertemukan pemegang saham dengan perusahaan investasi dari Timur Tengah. Khusus untuk standby buyer, Wityasmoro mengatakan, bisa berasal dari investor baru atau pemegang saham lama. ”Tapi kita prioritaskan dari investor baru” ujarnya.

FREN menargetkan jumlah pelanggannya sampai akhir tahun 2009, dua kali lipat dari jumlah pelanggan tahun 2008. Merza Fachys, Direktur Corporate Affair FREN mengatakan, bahwa sampai Q4 2008 lalu, jumlah pelanggan FREN memang belum selesai dihitung, namun sampai dengan Q3 tahun 2008 tercatat pengguna layanan CDMA FREN telah mencapai 3,5 pelanggan. Jika mengacu pada data tersebut, maka pada akhir 2009 jika sesuai target, FREN akan mendapat pelanggan sekitar 6-7 juta.
Guna mencapai target pelanggan tersebut, FREN mulai memperkuat produknya. Salah satunya dengan meluncurkan produk kartu perdana barunya yakni SOBAT. Kartu perdana yang berisi empat nomor Fren ini, memiliki layanan unggulan berupa sms gratis dan telfon murah antar anggotanya. Dari produk barunya tersebut, FREN menargetkan memperoleh 400-500 ribu pelanggan baru di tahun 2009. "Hingga akhir 2008 lalu, jumlah pelanggan kita memang tidak sesuai harapan, tapi angkanya masih dalam proses audit," papar Wityasmoro. Namun begitu, ia cukup optimis pendapatan FREN sepanjang 2009 ini akan naik 10-20 persen.

Selama tahun 2008 lalu, FREN telah menggunakan dana capital expenditure (capex) sebanyak USD 100 juta, yang kebanyakan digunakan untuk pembangunan infrastruktur. Tahun 2008 lalu, FREN memang tengah giat mengembangkan usahanya baik melalui jaringan fisik dan distribusi layanan khususnya di Sumatera, Sulawesi dan Kalimantan. Kala itu dana yang dianggarkan FREN untuk capex tahun 2008 adalah sebesar USD 140 juta. Untuk tahun 2009 sendiri FREN belum mau menyebutkan angka pastinya. “Yang jelas kita mengalokasikan belanja modal kurang dari USD 100 juta” terang Wityasmoro. Capex yang lebih rendah dibanding 2008 itu menurut Wityasmoro dikarenakan tahun ini FREN fokus mempertahankan bisnis yang sudah ada.

Analis/Willy Sanjaya(Mahakarya Securities)
Kondisi sekarang ini masih sulit, khususnya pasar dalam negeri, jika memang akan rights issue dalam waktu dekat kemungkinan akan sulit. Apalagi harga sahamnya saat ini masih di level Rp 50. Untuk level aman rights issue harga saham harus di atas Rp 100. Ada kemungkinan sahamnya akan dikerek. Namun bila ternyata sudah ada standby buyer luar negeri yang siap, tentu akan bagus. Perkembangan sektor telekomunikasi masih cukup menjanjikan, yang harus diperhatikan perseroan adalah adanya perang tariff yang semakin besar. Saham FREN saat ini masih kurang menarik, sebaiknya investor menghindarinya dulu.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

SAHAM-SAHAM BATU BARA MULAI PANAS

JAKARTA – Saham-saham batu bara nampaknya sudah mulai memanas lagi. Dengan mulai merangkak naiknya harga minyak, membuat komoditas batu bara mulai menguat. Saham-saham batu bara macam PTBA, ITMG, ADRO dan BUMI diprediksi akan unjuk gigi tahun ini. Harga minyak dunia sendiri, pada Rabu (28/1) berada pada level USD 42,2 naik 1,49 persen dari hari sebelumnya. Banyak kalangan yang menilai saham-saham batu bara tersebut akan memberikan sumbangan signifikan pada IHSG, seperti awal tahun lalu.

Menurut Muhammad AlFatih, analis BNI Sekuritas, dengan kenaikan harga minyak dunia ini akan membawa sentiment positif bagi industri pertambangan batu bara. “Pada gilirannya saham-saham batu bara juga akan ikut membaik” ujarnya kepada Indonesia Business Today, Rabu (28/1). Menurutnya secara teknikal tahun 2009 ini harga minyak dunia akan berada pada level resistence di harga USD 60 per barrel.

Lebih lanjut menurut Al Fatih, harga batu bara saat ini jika diamati secara teknikal pada level harga-harga terendah, selama lima tahun terakhir sudah mendekati support level USD 50 per ton. Sejak tahun 2000 harga batu bara terus mengalami tren naik. Tahun 2000 harga batu bara berada di harga USD 20 per ton, tahun 2003 di harga USD 36 per ton dan pada 2007 pada level hargaUSD 40 per ton. “Dengan harga yang mendekati support level USD 50, maka probabilitasnya akan terjadi penguatan di level harga ini” ujarnya. Ia sendiri memperkirakan selama tahun 2009 range harga batubara adalah USD 50-76 per ton.

Harga saham-saham emiten batu bara sendiri diperkirakan terimbas pada kondisi tersebut dan mengalami kenaikan. Menurut Haryajid Ramelan analis dari PT Kapita Sekurindo, harga saham batu bara saat ini sudah sangat murah. “Dulu supply batubara masih kurang sementara demand nya tinggi, namun sekarang keadaannya sudah berbalik” katanya. Ia sendiri memperkirakan pada semester II tahun ini, harga-harga komoditas sudah mulai terjadi kenaikan.

Menurutnya optimisme investor akan saham-saham batubara masih bagus. Hanya saja yang harus diperhatikan adalah kondisi pasar yang masih sepi transaksi. Namun ia menambahkan, jika investor jeli melihat situasi ini, maka investor bisa wait and see untuk kemudian melakukan akumulasi. Khusus untuk saham BUMI, Haryajid mengatakan bahwa harganya sudah cukup murah. Namun dengan masih adanya masalah yang menimpa BUMI, maka masih ada sentimen negatif terhadap saham tersebut. Ia menyarankan investor untuk buy on weakness atas saham PTBA dan ADRO. Sementara untuk BUMI ia merekomendasikan investor untuk trading buy.

Hampir sama dengan Haryajid, Al Fatih juga merekomendasikan untuk buy atas saham-saham PTBA, ITMG dan ADRO. Dari hasil analisanya, saham PTBA terus menguat sejak September tahun lalu. Harga terendahnya Rp 3.750, namun sekarang sudah di kisaran Rp 7000. Tahun 2009 ini kemungkinan harganya bisa sampai kisaran Rp 9.000. Level support nya Rp 6.000 untuk jangka menengah. Pada penutupan perdagangan kemarin (28/1) saham PTBA naik ke level Rp 7.250.

Untuk saham ITMG, terendah pada level Rp 5.900 pada Oktober tahun 2008 lalu. Tahun ini bisa ke level Rp 13.800 dengan batas support pada Rp 9.200. Pada penutupan perdagangan kemarin ITMG turun ke level Rp 9.750. Saham ADRO terendah pada Rp 460 dan kini telah mencapai Rp 690. Namun pada level Rp 700-750 ada resistence-resistence yang harus dilampaui oleh ADRO. Jika berhasil melewatinya, maka ADRO bisa menembus level Rp 860-1.000 tahun ini. Support untuk ADRO pada Rp 630. Pada penutupan perdagangan kemarin ADRO bertahan berada pada level Rp 690.

“Untuk BUMI, sampai pertengahan Januari ini masih terkena sentimen negatif akibat beberapa permasalahan yang dihadapi” jelas Al Fatih. Level terendah saham BUMI adalah Rp 350. BUMI akan resistence pada level Rp 300-570. Pada perdagangan kemarin BUMI ditutup menguat ke level Rp 510. Namun ia juga memberi catatan bahwa yang harus diperhatikan oleh investor adalah jika ternyata harga saham-saham tersebut ternyata berada di bawah level supportn ya. “Investor harus waspada jika ini terjadi” pungkasnya.


Tuesday, January 27, 2009

WIJAYA KARYA LANJUTKAN BUYBACK KE TAHAP II

JAKARTA – PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA) lanjutkan program buyback sahamnya. Dana yang akan digunakan buyback sendiri berasal dari sisa program buyback tahap I sebesar Rp 112,31 miliar. Direktur Utama WIKA, Bintang Prabowo mengatakan, bahwa alasan dilakukan buyback tahap II karena, dinilai aksi buyback sebelumnya berjalan efektif. Rencana ini sendiri telah mendapat persetujuan RUPSLB WIKA, Selasa (27/1).

Pada buyback I, dari 13 Oktober 2008 sampai 13 Januari 2009, WIKA telah berhasil membeli kembali 2,45 persen modal disetor atau senilai Rp 27,69 miliar. Sementara dana yang dicadangkan untuk buyback waktu itu sebesar Rp 140 miliar. Bertindak sebagai broker adalah Mandiri Sekuritas. Namun pihak WIKA belum bersedia menyampaikan level harga saham dalam untuk buyback tahap II tersebut. Menurut Direktur Keuangan WIKA, Ganda Kusuma, pihaknya akan melaporkan dulu ke Bapepam minggu depan. “Bisa jadi bulan Februari kita akan mulai buyback” ujarnya.

Selain kelanjutan buyback ke tahap II, WIKA juga akan mengalihkan sisa dana IPO nya sebesar Rp 307.159.000.000 untuk modal kerja perseroan maupun anak usahanya. “Sebanyak Rp 207,159 miliar akan digunakan untuk modal kerja induk sedang Rp 100 miliar sisanya untuk anak perusahaan” Ganda. Lebuh lanjut ia menjelaskan, bahwa dana Rp 100 miliar untuk anak perusahaan itu terbagi menjadi, Rp 50 miliar untuk Wika Realty, dan masing-masing Rp 25 miliar untuk Wika Intrade dan Wika Beton.

Tahun 2009 sendiri WIKA menganggarkan capex sebesar Rp 250 miliar, dengan Rp 70 miliar diantaranya dari kas internal. Sejumlah Rp 70 miliar akan digunakan untuk pembangunan pabrik Wika Beton dan untuk renovasi bangunan rutin tiap tahun. Sementara itu dana Rp 180 miliar akan digunakan untuk kelanjutan proyek tol Surabaya-Mojokerto (SuMo) dan tahap awal pembangunan IPP Geothermal Tampomas. Untuk PLTG ini sendiri, total investasi yang dianggarkan adalah Rp 374 miliar. “Kita harapkan mulai bulan April, karena saat ini sedang dilakukan pembongkaran oleh kontraktor lain” jalas Ganda.

Khusus untuk kelanjutan proyek tol SuMo, WIKA akan masuk dalam konsorsium dengan PT Jasa Marga Tbk untuk mengambil porsi sebanyak 75 persen saham PT Marga Nujyasumo Agung (MNA), pelaksana proyek tol SuMo. Pihak WIKA sendiri mengaku sudah setuju dengan tawaran untuk mengambil maksimal 20 persen dari jumlah tersebut. “Besok MNA akan minta persetujuan kreditur, baru setelah itu kita ajukan ke Menteri PU” terang Bintang. Sindikasi perbankan yang bertindak menjadi kreditur proyek SuMo adalah Bank BNI, BRI dan Bank Bukopin.

Tahun 2008 lalu, memang pernah terjadi konfik dalam proyek ini. Kala itu pemilik konsesi Sumo PT Marga Nujyasumo Agung, berencana menjual sebagian besar sahamnya karena mengalami kesulitan pendanaan. Proses pembebasan lahannya pun kemudian dihentikan oleh P2T (Panitia Pembebasan Tanah). PT Wijaya Karya yang juga bertindak sebagai kontraktor proyek, akhirnya menyampaikan minatnya mengakuisisi proyek ini.

Namun disaat yang sama, PT Moeladi sebagai pemegang saham utama PT Marga Nujyasumo Agung (MNA) juga menawarkan sahamnya kepada JSMR. Bahkan akhirnya terjadi kesepakatan antara PT Marga Nujyasumo Agung dengan JSMR, dan kemudian dilakukan due diligent oleh JSMR. Kontan saja hal tersebut membuat PT Wijaya Karya merasa dilangkahi oleh JSMR. Namun belakangan akhirnya diputuskan adanya pembagian porsi kepemilikan saham tersebut oleh kreditur. Kepala BPJT, Nurdin Manurung, beberapa waktu lalu juga telah menyatakan bahwa, kelayakan atas konsorsium baru tersebut di dasarkan atas dua hal, yakni konsorsium baru tersebut disetujui oleh sindikasi perbankan, dan kedua konsorsium baru tersebut tidak sedang dalam masalah hukum.

Selain upaya melanjutan proyek to SuMo, tahun ini WIKA memang memiliki beberapa proyek baru serta rencana akuisisi baru. Untuk proyek tolnya, WIKA juga akan mengembangkan tol road Marga Kunciran-Cengkareng dan Rallink (Manggarai-Bandara Cengkareng). Untuk proyek power plant, WIKA berencana membangun IPP Geothermal Tampomas di Tanjung Priuk. Selain itu WIKA juga berencana untuk mengakuisi sebuah kontraktor tambang di Kalimantan Timur. “Saat ini kita masih tahap due diligent” ujar Ganda.

Proyek lain yang juga tengah dijajaki WIKA adalah pembangunan pabrik penyaringan aspal di Buton. Saat ini WIKA tengah melakukan pembicaraan dengan beberapa pihak potensial termasuk PT Sarana Karya maupun PT Timah untuk melakukan sinergi. Nilai investasi awal pembangunan pabrik ini, rencananya akan memakan biaya Rp 50 miliar. Di Buton sendiri diperkirakan memiliki cadangan aspal sebesar 50-80 juta ton. Jika pabrik ini terealisasi diperkirakan kapasitasnya sebesar 200 ribu ton per tahun. “Kita senang investasi usaha baru seperti Wika Beton dulu yang ternyata sangat bagus” kata Bintang.

Tak cukup sampai disitu, WIKA juga tengah merencanakan untuk mengembangkan proyeknya di Aljazair. WIKA mengakui telah mendapat tawaran dari Aljazair untuk membangun jembatan dengan nilai investasi Rp 300-500 miliar. Sebelumnya WIKA memang telah memulai perluasan usahanya ke Aljazair dengan pembangunan East West Motorways. Proyek ini sendiri telah memakan dana Rp 92 miliar dari dana IPO, yang termuat dalam realisasi penggunaan dana IPO per Desember 2008.

Dari IPO nya sendiri, WIKA mendapatkan dana sebesar Rp 759.587.000.000. Dalam realisasi penggunaan dan IPO per Desember 2008, juga terdapat penggunaan dana Rp 107 miliar untuk proyek PLTU Labuhan dan Indramayu, Rp 45 miliar untuk proyek gedung The Adhiwangsa. Selain itu juga ada laporan penggunaan dana proyek PLTGU Muara Karang sebesar Rp 45 miliar dan Rp 145,428 miliar untuk PLTU II Sulut. Untuk PLTU Sulut sendiri diakui WIKA penyerapan dananya belum 100 persen, karena proyeknya masih berjalan. Untuk pengembangan proyek infrastruktur WIKA telah menggunakan dana Rp 18 miliar. Dana tersebut untuk penyertaan modal disetor pada PT Marga Kunciran Cengkareng. Total realisasi penggunaan dana IPO mencapai Rp 452,428 miliar.

Dengan banyaknya proyek akan dikerjakan, tahun 2009 ini WIKA memproyeksikan memperoleh omset kontrak sebesar Rp 16 triliun. Selain itu WIKA juga memproyeksikan penjualannya mencapai Rp 7,5 triliun, dengan laba bersih 175 miliar. Tahun 2008 lalu, WIKA mendapat omset kontrak sebesar 15 triliun, dengan prognosa penjualan Rp 6,5 triliun serta prognosa laba bersih Rp 144 miliar dari target laba bersih Rp 167 miliar. Menurut Bintang, penurunan laba bersih 2008 dari target dikarenakan adanya peraturan perpajakan yang baru. “Kita sebelumnya mengacu pada pajak 30 persen dari laba atau 1,2 persen terhadap sales” ujarnya. Namun menurutnya, setelah ada peraturan baru pajak final 3 persen dari sales, maka labanya jadi tergerus 1,8 persen. Sumbangan terbesar pada penjualan WIKA sendiri adalah, dari usaha infrastruktur konstruksi sebesar Rp 4,5 triliun. Sementara itu posisi pinjaman WIKA saat ini adalah Rp 230 miliar. Pada perdagangan saham kemarin saham WIKA ditutup stagnan pada level Rp 205 per lembar.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Andalkan Nissan
PT INDOMOBIL SUKSES MAKMUR TBK BIDIK 20 PERSEN MARKET SHARE

JAKARTA – PT Indomobil Sukses Makmur Tbk (IMSI) targetkan penjualan tahun ini mencapai 80.000 unit. Menurut Direktur Utama IMSI, Gunadi Sindhuwinata, kepada Indonesia Business Today, Jumat (23/1), dari target penjualan otomotif 2009 overall sebesar 400.000 unit, IMSI akan mendapat market share sekitar 20 persen.

Lebih lanjut lagi ia mengatakan bahwa dari target penjualan 80.000 unit tersebut, sekitar 20.000-25.000 unit akan disumbang oleh penjualan mobil merek Nissan. “Selama ini pangsa pasar kita paling besar adalah Suzuki, Hino dan Nissan” jelasnya. Ia sendiri juga mengakui bahwa tahun 2009 ini demand industri otomotif memang akan menurun. Karena hal inilah ia juga cukup realistis bahwa penjualan IMSI tahun 2009 juga akan turun. “Tahun 2009 kemungkinan demand otomotif turun 30 persen, jadi penjualan kita mungkin tidak sebaik tahun lalu” ujarnya. Menurutnya penjualan bersih tahun lalu berada pada kisaran Rp 8 triliun lebih.

Dengan kondisi menurunnya demand inilah maka IMSI kemudian menempuh strategi pengembangan pemasaran. Salah satunya adalah dengan memasarkan truk pick up khusus untuk UKM. Menurut Gunadi, pasar UKM memang telah terbukti mampu bertahan ketika krisis keuangan global terjadi. Melalui anak usahanya yakni PT Indobuana Autoraya, IMSI akan menggarap pasar otomotif untuk UKM. Rencananya produk yang akan dijadikan andalan adalah truk pick up merek Foton.

Truk Foton ini sendiri adalah produk asal China yang tergolong truk ringan. Pemasarannya sendiri akan menggunakan jaringan Indomobil Group yang tersebar luas di Indonesia terutama di Jawa, Sumatera, Kalimantan dan Sulawesi. “Kita akan berupaya meningkatkan penjualan dari mana saja” jelas Gunadi. Menurut Gunadi pihaknya terus mengembangkan strategi penjualan yang telah berjalan selama ini. Karena menurutnya, selama ini pemasaran di sektor UKM membutuhkan mobilisasi dan network yang bagus.

Selain penggarapan Foton untuk pasar UKM, IMSI sebelumnya juga telah menggarap pasar untuk sektor pertanian. Melalui anak usahanya PT Indo Traktor Utama, IMSI menjadi distributor tunggal peralatan pertanian dari YTO Group, perusahaan asal China. Peralatan pertanian tersebut antara lain wheeled tractor, crawler tractor dan mesin panen. YTO sendiri memang memfokuskan pemasarannya di kawasan Asia Tenggara terutama Indonesia, Malaysia dan Thailand. Menurut Gunadi, sejak berjalan tahun lalu, pemasaran peralatan pertanian ini memberikan hasil yang baik.

Tahun 2009 sendiri, IMSI selain fokus pada penggarapan pasar segmented tersebut, juga akan fokus pada penyediaan financing service. Sejauh ini IMSI memiliki dua anak usaha yang bergerak di bidang penyedia jasa keuangan yakni PT Indomobil Finance Indonesia dan PT Swadharma Indotama Finance. Menurut Gunadi, dengan kondisi likuiditas yang seperti sekarang ini, menurutnya masih cukup berat untuk mengembangkan jasa financing. Namun meskipun diperkirakan daya beli menurun, ia cukup optimis kebutuhan justru lebih besar. “Yang kami harapkan adalah dana yang banyak, suku bunga yang kompetitif, dan inflasi yang rendah” ungkapnya. Ia sendiri melihat kondisi sekarang ini sudah mulai kondusif dengan pemangkasan BI rate oleh BI beberapa waktu lalu. “Sebelumnya kan sempat di 17 persen, dilihat sekarang sudah setengahnya. Untuk Indofinance biasanya kita bermain di Rp 1,5 triliun” jelasnya.

Tahun 2009 IMSI juga menargetkan laba bersih sekitar Rp 50-60 miliar. Menurut Gunadi jumlah tersebut hampir sama dengan tahun lalu. Namun ia mengakui bahwa laporan keuangan 2008 masih dalam tahap penyelesaian. Ia juga belum bisa menyampaikan berapa besarnya capex 2009. Namun ia mengatakan bahwa pihaknya memang telah menjajaki untuk mendapatkan pembiayaan dari berbagai pihak. Sedang untuk alokasi dana capex, ia menyatakan masih melihat dulu perkembangan ekonomi. “Yang jelas selain untuk pengembangan kerjasama yang sudah ada, kita juga ada rencana membangun showroom baru” paparnya.

Dandi Fajar Musratmo/PT Eficorp Sekuritas
Industri otomotif tahun 2009 mungkin akan mengalami penurunan. Karena suku bunga kredit masih tinggi dan harga onderdil juga naik. Akibatnya permintaan juga menurun. Namun semua bisa saja berubah seperti penjualan 2008 yang ternyata melebihi target Gaikindo. Jika realisasi tahun ini minimal sama dengan target Gaikindo, maka akan memberikan pengaruh positif bagi industri otomotif. Walaupun sebenarnya dengan kenaikan penjualan tidak serta merta akan menaikkan saham. Namun tahun 2009 ini kemungkinan harga saham otomotif akan mengalami kenaikan semua. Untuk saat ini semua saham emiten otomotif rekomendasi buy on weakness. Investor masih harus melihat perkembangan pasar.

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